TWR | UPDATED SEPTEMBER 11, 2015 12:10 PM ET:- Singapore, the tiny Island republic and the richest state in the ASEAN, is beset by a phenomenon that is gripping the region: The rise of nationalistic drive.

Singaporeans have concerns over the cost of living, retirement plans and medical facilities for the lower income groups, but none of them has raised the ire of the people than the influx of foreign talent.

The opposition believes the influx of foreigners into Singapore is perceived as a means to bolster the talent pool, designed to deliberately keep the political equation in favor of the ruling PAP. 

This becomes more imperative as the popular vote of PAP has been dwindling due to the disenchantment of the locals. 

The present leadership vacuum in the PAP, which has yet to identify a suitable successor after PM Lee Hsien Loong's term in office, further exacerbates the problem.


There are fears within the ASEAN this phenomenon could dampen the entire community’s future, putting it at risk of falling apart on an issue that is rapidly gaining pace in Indonesia, Malaysia and even Laos or Myanmar.


The country has been voted the most liveable in Southeast Asia for the Singaporeans and its foreign contingencies, but locals are openly venting their grouses against foreign nationals, blaming the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) regime for the influx.


There are indications that a growing number of Singaporeans are joining the chorus against foreign workers, particularly from Bangladesh, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Myanmar. The presence of foreigners buying homes in Singapore, and living in the country, is the new target by anti-foreigner campaigners.


But this is only the tip of the iceberg that is threatening to collide with the country’s otherwise peaceful civil society.


Will the PAP’s money, expertise and integrity be sufficient to usher a new era in Singapore, one where the locals can live in harmony with the foreign legions?

The rise of the “Ang Mo”


Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong recently remarked that Singapore can be an “outstanding” home for generations to come, if the country continues to work at addressing significant economic and social shifts.


One of these economic and social shift is the rise of the “Ang Mo”, which is a racial epithet describing Caucasians, who are considered to be at the root of employment loss by locals, and of driving Singapore’s housing index to astronomical levels.


The other aspect of the ‘foreign’ trouble for Singapore is the mass entry of Chinese citizens from Hong Kong and the People’s Republic of China.


They too are contributing to the uneasiness felt by the locals, who have set their target on the PAP’s perceived inability to continue to offer secure, peaceful and rapid transportation as well as shopping experience for the locals.


It is common, nowadays, to meet locals who would criticise the flocking of foreign nationals in the country, many vowing to punish the PAP’s administration for what they call the loss of the country’s national identity and integrity.


However, the PAP is adamant that it has consensus from the public on its side, and the grouse are from a minority that can be dissipated by what the Prime Minister called ‘policy moves’.


Lee said citizens’ views have been given more weight in recent such policy moves, citing the boosting of social safety nets as one of the measures.


In a policy statement last year, Singapore‘s President Tony Tan Keng Yam said social safety nets would be strengthened, while the share of the fruits of progress and the nation’s success would be distributed more widely, especially with the lower-income and vulnerable groups.


But social groups are accusing the authorities of a pro-Chinese policy, in which majority Chinese Singaporeans are benefiting largely from such policies, while the minorities are made to pay the price of ‘meritocracy’.


These groups believe the PAP is bringing in more Chinese citizens and Westerners, who would be handed permanent resident permits, in order to consolidate the PAP’s political stronghold.


We can make sense of the local concerns, since the PR holders are eligible to Singapore nationality if they ‘register’ through the new process of getting the prized “Red” identity card.


Foreigners make up to 38% of Singapore’s workforce, while 43% of the foreign workforce consists of domestic or construction workers, but the low level foreign workers is not the real cause of the discontent against the PAP.


Singaporean observers admit that the PAP has a huge problem on its hands with the perception that it is allowing far too many foreigners to buy properties, and get high level jobs. This at a time when it is getting harder for locals to land middle-income jobs which is gradually going to “Ang Mohs”, PRC citizens and others.

PAP’s shrinking popularity

The PAP is scrambling to rectify a dangerous trend in the electoral process, one that has seen its share of popular support shrinking over the years, with a divided opposition force gaining ground in several areas.


The main grouses of the locals are the influx of the foreigners, from PRC, mainland India and the Philippines. They are the main cause of the overcrowded public transportation systems, the snapping of jobs at all levels, making it harder for locals to secure regular income – particularly among the minority Malay-Muslims and the Indians.


The country is also feeling he over-crowding in main public centers, entertainment outlets and shops making it harder for locals to feel they are Singaporeans in Singapore.


Singaporeans have concerns over the cost of living, retirement plans and medical facilities for the lower income groups, but none of them has raised the ire of the people than the influx of the foreign legions.


Show a foreigner doing something wrong, or not acceptable to the locals, and the country can see everyone up in arms against the foreign workers and expats. This then translates into anti-PAP campaigns, which gains traction, mostly among the lower income, the minorities and the young generations that are struggling to secure jobs.


The PAP, aware that the opposition is bound to make more grounds in the next general elections, will be forced to take drastic measures to maintain its dominance.


It may prioritise jobs for locals in a certain sectors, provide more educational and social support to increase the ‘merits’ of Singaporean workers to get jobs that are now being snatched by foreigners, but 
it cannot run away from the fact that playing on the international stage would need it to have even more foreign talents flocking in the country.


One solution would be in Singapore to seek talents within the ASEAN pool, instead of depending too heavily on Australia, China, and Europe.


To achieve this, it will have to boost its local human capital in the first place, but with the minorities in particular lagging behind in education and training as claimed by social groups the country is not going to solve the problems easily. This will play into the hands of the opposition.

PAP losing GRC’s
There are already indications that the opposition will gain more grounds in the next General Elections, scheduled for 2017, but which may be held as early as this year.

While the PAP is banking on the safety nets and the division among the opposition, Premier Lee would also campaign on the risks the country could run into with the opposition in power.


Zulfikar Shariff, a pro-Islam campaigner from Singapore now living in Australia said the PAP will be tempted to buy off the support of the electorate when the elections are near, with new policies to address ongoing dissatisfaction, but there is a lot of disquiet in the country and the opposition may win one or two Group Representation Constituency (GRC’s).


A GRC is a type of the electoral division or constituency in Singapore, where the Members of Parliament (MPs) are voted into Parliament as a group.


The opposition had so far failed to win any GRC’s in the past.


The opposition is composed of various parties, the strongest among them being the Workers Party (WP), but the Social Democratic Party (SDP) of Che Soon Juan is gaining sympathy, which may or may not translate into votes.


While the PAP remains certain of ruling Singapore for another 5 year term after the 2017 polls, there are signs that the party is cracking and may face turmoil once the veteran and legendary former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew expires.


The next smooth leadership transition within the PAP seems to be a major problem that the party will have to deal with.


The party’s leadership issues will dwarf the other realities, it is facing on the ground, including the grouse within the country’s minorities and a fringe of the Chinese voters. ■

AZ | UPDATED SEPTEMBER 4, 2015 07:30 PM ET:- An emerging geo-strategic conflict between China and Japan poses the biggest economic risk for Asean nations, prominent British diplomat Lord Paddy Ashdown believes.

Every year, US$5.3 trillion worth of goods, or around one-quarter of global merchandise export trade, passes through the South China Sea.

U.S.-led trade accounted for more than a quarter of this figure(US$1.2 trillion.)

The world’s second- and third-largest economies respectively, China and Japan, exported US$2.9 trillion (RM 11 trillion) worth of goods in 2013. much of which was shipped through the South China Sea.

Conflict between the China and Japan could bring to a standstill six of the world’s largest ports, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks 2015 report.

It could also stop flights from five of the world’s top 20 airports, which handle 8% of all passenger traffic and 46 % of all air freight.

The importance of the South China seas lies in its proximity to strategically important shipping lanes, and significant fishing grounds and oil deposits.

Ashdown believes building and maintaining good international relationships through regional treaties are more efficient compared to agreements through international institutions.

“That’s why the Kyoto Protocol and the World Trade Organisation works, because the government can agree on certain areas, although they don’t subscribe to each other's political systems,” Paddy said, speaking at the World Capital Markets Symposium in Kuala Lumpur today.

Disputes over maritime sovereignty and territory have compounded the deficit in multilateral governance in Asia. 

Lord Paddy Ashdown is one of Britain's most prominent dilomats ( Pix credit)

Asean member states need to recognize the limits of Westphalian preconceptions of maritime sovereignty, Ashdown said.

Strong nationalistic and traumatic historical antagonism are linked by critical maritime spaces that define the international trade and shipping routes.

Expanding existing trade and traditional security agreements – such as ASEAN-based dialogues and confidence and security building measures, have inherent limits in accommodating imperatives specific to each country and to the maritime context he said in this exclusive interview.

Mr. Ashdown said he was optimistic about China's role as a global power, considering its active multilateral actions under United Nations (UN).

“Not many are aware the Chinese government is involved actively in securing the Somalian maritime security zone and under the purview of UN, they provide about 3,700 personnel.” Ashdown said.

Mr.Ashdown was leader of the Liberal Democrats from 1988 until August 1999, and Chair of the Liberal Democrats' 2015 general election team.

Previously, ASEAN and China agreed upon multilateral risk-reduction in the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), but neither have adhered to its provisions.

The declaration to resolve territorial and jurisdictional disputes without resorting to the threat or use of force have never been implemented.

The resumption of negotiations between China and ASEAN after a decade-long hiatus holds promise for reinvigorating cooperative activities under the DOC. ■

The movement of support for Muhyiddin Yassin, former deputy PM fired by PM Najib Razak a month ago, has gathered steam in some states, but it is not sufficient for the ruling party Umno to move against its embattled leader.

Word is out that Johor is still at boiling point over the firing of Muhyiddin, while the state Umno does not endorse the official version intended to clear Najib regarding the Middle Eastern donation of RM2.

6 billion, a huge sum of cash that went directly into the PM's account.

"The Umno leadership, at least those in the corridors of power, have thrown in the Middle Eastern donor explanation in a bid to atone the Malay-Muslims of the country.

 But it has not bitten, and now the power that be is struggling to establish the truth about the billions," Ali Amir, a political analyst said.

The Najib government has tried to enlist the Malay community behind it on the 1MDB issue, with the fact that the scandal ridden sovereign fund has spent its money building Mosques, which is considered a holy act for the Muslims.

The problem is, Johor, the birth state of Umno and a fixed deposit in the elections for the ruling Malay party, failed to give support on these issues.

The Johor Mentri Besar, Khalid Nordin, has not relented on his calls for the party to reject corrupt practices, adding pain to the miseries of the Najib regime.

The Johor Umno is rigged with trouble since the removal of Muhyiddin as deputy PM, said another observer to The Week Review.

“Khalid Nordin is spearheading a campaign to rid the Umno of its ills, and one of these is the allegation of corruption and the weakness of the political organisation,” said the observer.

In less than a week in July, the MB has urged party members to act in order to prevent issues affecting the party to fester any longer, showing an urgency in the need to redress the party’s image.

“The situation is dire, as it involves other powerful figures in the state,” said the observer.

Anti-Najib banners were unfurled in Johor in public places, including highways and bus stops.

Najib was given the cold shudder when he attended the Pasir Gudang Umno division’s annual general meeting .

Ahmad Maslan, the Umno information chief and Pontian MP who was shifted from the Ministry of Finance to a less prominent role as deputy Minister of international trade and industry, was booed at his constituency's meeting.

The list is unending, with powerful figures in Johor coming out to express their dissatisfaction over several issues.

The powerful Johor royal family have also made online posting viewed as veiled criticism of Najib and his wife, Rosmah.

Umno’s biggest voter bank is now not invulnerable from the opposition coalition’s push to take over the state.

In the 2008 elections, Barisan Nasional had won 50 seats, with the DAP gaining four seats and PAS winning two.

Back then, deposed DPM Anwar Ibrahim’s Party Keadilaan Rakyat did not have a chance against hardline BN supporters in Johor.

In 2013, Pakatan Rakyat registered major gains in Johor in the local assembly elections, winning 18 seats, spearheaded by PKR, still seen as a splinter Umno party by Johoreans.

 Umno won 32 of the 38 seats won by the ruling coalition.

That year, BN won 53.99% of votes in the state assembly election, and PR won up to 45% of the vote.

Barisan National won 21 Parliamentary seats — but the PR coalition won five, a feat it had never achieved before in the state.

As it is, Umno is bound to face stiffer challenges in the 2018 elections — with voters riled over allegations of a corruption cover-up amid blurred lines over RM2.

6 billion banked into Prime Minister Najib Razak’s account.

The funds, that were said to be traced by investigators prying into 1Malaysia Development Bhd, are to be a donation from the Middle East to the Umno party.

But even this statement is being contested by rebel former ministers.

With rising concerns on 1MDB and perceptions of inadequacy in Najib Razak’s explanations regarding the ‘donation’ from the Middle East, Umno now faces an internal rift it has never seen since Anwar Ibrahim was jailed in 1998.

Since 2008, Barisan National has lost its grip on two of Malaysia’s richest states, Penang and Selangor.

Johor will not be immune to national sentiment over debt-ridden 1MDB, the RM2.6 billion traced to the Prime Minister’s accounts, the arrest of Malaysian Anti Corruption Commision officials and their transfer to the PM’s office — as well as the Cabinet reshuffle.

All these are seen as attempts to cover up what the public has now perceived as gross wrong doings by the ruling coalition.

It is worth noting that the movement to clean Umno of its vagaries is not new.

Calls to remove Najib as Umno president have been led by former Malaysian stateman and political stalwart Tun Mahathir Mohamad, who was also the fourth Prime Minister of Malaysia.

Mahathir has garnered sufficient support within the Umno and outside the party sphere, for his allegations to be a concern for Najib.

Khalid Nordin views the problems facing Umno as cancerous — and has urged Umno leaders to admit the party is in bad shape.

The Johor MB is not alone and has the support of Muhyiddin Yassin, who has made known his intentions to cling to his post as deputy president of Umno despite attempts to oust him, sources who spoke to The Week Review said.

Yassin also seems to have the support of former Cabinet colleague Mohd Shafie Apdal, who was revoked from his Ministership in the recent Cabinet shake-up.

Like Yassin, Shafie is also an Umno Vice-President, hailing from East Malaysia.

Shafie Apdal has contested the fact that the RM2.6 billion was a donation — there has never been mention within Umno of such a donation from the Middle East, he claims.

Najib fired back by saying that the party should trust him with donations and the party’s expenses.

But for how long?

■
By The Week Editors

Pressure is mounting for yet another cabinet reshuffle in Malaysia, with the possibility that Prime Minister Najib Razak may be forced to relinquish his post as minister of finance, amid alleged pressure from the ruling party.

Sources said rebels within the United Malays National Organisation (Umno), backed by grass root support, are pressing the Prime Minister to quit his finance ministry post, but the party is facing a dilemma as to who will take over the mantle.
With a groundswell of anti-Najib sentiment rising in several parts of the Umno base, analysts told Singapore based Channel News Asia (CNA), a mini reshuffle of the cabinet is potentially on the cards.

CNA mentioned Wahid Omar, the current Minister in the Prime Minister's Department in charge of Economic Planning, as the hot favorite to take over from Najib.

But sources told The Week this might not go down well with the party's grassroots.

Other candidates mentioned by CNA are Mustapa Mohamed, Minister for International Trade and Industry, and Nazir Razak the  Chairman of CIMB Banking Group.

The source said there are chances that neither Mustapa nor Nazir Razak would accept the post.

"Ümno will have to dig deeper to find a successor to Najib as minister of finance," said the source.
He said Nazir would be better placed, but it will not be such a simple matter to get the brother of the Prime Minister to join the cabinet.

Nazir has been an ardent critic of the 1MDB issue, and has been instrumental to the resignation of the CIMB Islamic bank CEO Badlisya Abdul Ghani.

Badlisyah publicly disputed documents used by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) about fund transfers to the prime minister's personal bank accounts.

He was allegedly remonstrated by his boss, Nazir, and effectively resigned from his post on August 15 thus becoming one of the many victims of the 1MDB saga.

Several other prominent personalities has lost their job following their criticism of the 1MDB issue, including former Deputy PM Muhyiddin Yasin and Attorney-General Abdul Gani Patail.

A trickle of comments from Barisan National (BN) ministers has shed the light on the possible reasons for the sacking of the AG.

BN strategic communications director Abdul Rahman Dahlan's confession that Gani was about to serve the Prime Minister a charge sheet that would have led to his arrest.

Nevertheless, if Wahid is not nominated minister of finance, the job could go to Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah, second minister of finance.

■
By The Week Editors

Is it the end of the Taliban era that is on the cards?